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Brexit Without an EU Deal Could Cause 482,000 UK Job Drop

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A new Cambridge Econometrics report suggests nearly half a million jobs will disappear without a Brexit deal. London Mayor Sadiq Khan commissioned the study which also predicts a £50 billion investment reduction by 2030.

Finance Industry Vacancies Ahead

If the United Kingdom leaves the European Union in 2019 without a deal, it could lead to a 482,000 British job loss in. These findings have arrived as London has experienced massive finance industry wide job vacancies in three consecutive years of drops.

Moreover, if a deal cannot be established in time for Brexit, Great Britain will also experience a £50 billion plummet in investments in the eleven years that follow it.

To come up with these figures, Cambridge Econometrics employed five different Brexit scenario models. These included a spectrum of potential outcomes, including the softest form of Brexit and the hardest. It then proceeded to create a breakdown of Brexit’s economic impact on nine major U.K. industries from finance through construction.

Finance Jobs Already in Freefall

The Cambridge Econometrics report followed on the heels of a Morgan McKinley report released only hours beforehand. The Morgan McKinley report revealed the results of a survey revealing the dramatic job vacancy reduction in London’s finance industry. In December, London job vacancies in finance fell by 52 percent. This represents the greatest drop in three years. Moreover, there was a 37 percent job opening decline, year over year.

This placed the spotlight on the reality of the Brexodus currently occurring in London, said Morgan McKinley in its report.

“In December, the City is abuzz with holiday parties, not hiring, so a drop is to be expected,” said Hakan Enver, the Morgan McKinley operations director, in the report. “But for it to be such a seismic drop is alarming.”

If PM May Fails a Deal

The Cambridge study indicated that a failure by Prime Minister Theresa May to obtain a two year transition deal would be a worst case scenario. It would mean that there wouldn’t be anything in place to ease the Brexit process for businesses.

Should that occur, London alone would create an estimated 87,000 fewer positions. This would be followed by a decade of reduced growth, said Khan’s office. Negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union will begin again in March. The next topic of the trade discussions will be the status of banks.

“I am confident that we will be able to achieve a good deal, and I’m very clear that that is what we are working for,” said Prime Minister May after having read the Cambridge report.

Note: The opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the view of Alvexo on the matter.