Anticipation is high for tonight’s FOMC Statement as traders expect current interest rate language to shift from patience to a new form of guidance as probabilities of a June rate cut rise. This is in stark contrast to the latest bout of disappointing US macroeconomic data. For the second straight month, economic figures have missed estimates by a wide margin, adding to concerns that a rate hike could do more harm than good as GDP expansion sputters. The recent spate of bad housing data coupled with weakening spending and manufacturing dilutes the argument for higher rates especially with inflation well below levels targeted by the Federal Reserve. The US dollar has been consolidating against major pairs in the hours leading up to the statement with any positive guidance likely to send the currency soaring. GBPUSD could sink further as the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee releases its own minutes that will likely confirm growing setbacks for the UK economy.
Ahead of the FOMC
Daily Analysis - 18/03/2015