China Manufacturing PMI Slips in April

Daily Analysis - 02/05/2016

China's manufacturing PMI fell 0.1 points to 50.1 in April


Manufacturing PMI data from China for April showed that the manufacturing sector was slowing with the index printing at 50.1 in April, down from 50.2 in March and missing forecasts of 50.2. The non-manufacturing PMI was also weaker, falling to 53.5 in April, from 53.8 in March.

French CPI Rises 0.10% in April

Preliminary inflation estimates from France for April showed a 0.10% increase in April on a month over month basis according to data released by the French statistics agency Insee on Friday. Despite the month over month increase, French consumer prices were down 0.20% on a year over year basis, missing forecasts of a 0.20% increase on the month and a 0.10% decline on a year over year basis. Consumer prices fell with a decline in manufacturing goods. The decline in the French CPI comes following weak consumer prices in Germany released on Thursday. The harmonized measure of consumer inflation fell 0.10% on the year posting a third month of consecutive declines.


Eurozone Inflation Drops in April but Q1 GDP extends gains

Consumer prices in the Eurozone fell in April according to data released by Eurostat on Friday. The harmonized consumer price index or HICP fell 0.20% on an annual basis after remaining flat in March, following a 0.20% decline in February. The drop in inflation came below analysts’ expectations who forecasted a 0.10% drop on the month. Core inflation which excludes energy, food and alcohol eased to 0.80% in April from 1.0% in March and missed forecasts of 0.90%. On the other hand, GDP estimates showed that Euro area economic growth accelerated more than expected in the first quarter, rising 0.60% in Q1 2016, following a 0.30% expansion in the previous quarter. Analysts expected to see GDP rise 0.40%. On a yearly basis, GDP growth was at 1.60%, slightly above forecasts of 1.50%.


Canada GDP Contracts for First Time in Five Months

The Canadian economy showed signs of easing back after the monthly GDP report showed the economy contracting for the first time in five months. Data from Statistics Canada released on Friday showed that Canada's monthly GDP fell 0.10% in February following a 0.60% increase in January. On a year over year basis, Canada's GDP rose 1.50% on the month. In a separate report, Canada PPI declined in March with lower prices for motorized and recreational vehicles. Data from Statistics Canada showed the PPI falling 0.60% in March, missing forecasts of a 0.50% increase. The previous month's data was also revised showing the PPI declining 1.0% against previous estimates of a 1.10% decline. On a year over year basis, Canada's PPI fell 2.10% on the month.


US ISM Manufacturing PMI Expected to Fall

The US manufacturing PMI, to be released by the Institute of Supply Management today (Monday), is expected to show a decline to 51.6 in April, following an increase to 51.8 in March. The manufacturing PMI jumped above the 50 level for the first time since October 2015, indicating that the manufacturing sector in the US was back to expansion following four months of contraction. A weaker than expected print could continue to keep the bearish momentum in the USD going, but an upside surprise could no doubt see a sharp reaction, especially when the outlook on the US economy is gloomy with the first quarter GDP rising at the slowest pace in two years at a mere 0.50%.


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