Chinese Recovery Back on Track

China's GDP grew 6.70% for the year through September, in-line with estimates, as robust public spending more than offset tepid private investment.  Economists now believe the major near-term threat to economic activity is a possible correction in the red hot real estate market, which accounts for nearly 15.00% of GDP. Property investments accelerated last month and home sales surged in China, highlighting strong investor demand even as the government carries on with its measures to curb prices.  Additionally, the National Bureau of Statistics has warned on the “foundation of continued economic growth” not being sufficiently robust.  Although better than anticipated retail figures and strong fixed asset investment do build upon an optimistic outlook, internal and external risks to the outlook remain significant.  The Yuan continues to weaken versus the US dollar, with the US dollar-offshore Yuan pair trading just shy of recent highs.

The US dollar retreated from a seven-month high against a basket of six major currencies after consumer prices in the country indicated a moderation in underlying inflation, prodding investors to trim bets on a December Federal Reserve interest rate hike.  The core Consumer Price Index, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 0.10% in September, slowing the year-over-year increase in core CPI to 2.20% according to data from the Labor Department on Tuesday. Fed Fund futures now project a 65.00% likelihood of the US Federal Reserve raising rates in December, down from 70.00% before the release of the CPI data.  In the meantime, the Euro is holding steady around $1.0984, just above Monday's 2-month low of $1.0964. A break below that level could see EURUSD retest the June 24^th “Brexit” low of 1.0912.