A Full Economic Docket for the Week

Daily Analysis - 29/01/2018

Major Currencies are Testing All-time Highs

Most of the major currencies are testing all-time highs as the US Dollar keeps losing momentum. Though this week could spur the trend reversal ahead of the FOMC meeting and the Friday’s NFP report.

AUD/USD just Below Two and a Half Year Tops

The AUD/USD pair found a strong resistance on Friday's strong closing above 2-1/2 year tops, 0.8100, though it has being retraced by a modest US Dollar rebound. The ongoing upsurge in the US Treasury bond yields helped ease the recent USD weakening and was seen capping any further gains for higher-yielding currencies - like the Aussie.

A positive trading sentiment in the commodity sector, especially copper, supported the commodity-linked Australian Dollar.

Meanwhile, fears of a trade war are growing following recent comments by the US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and the latest US tariff on imported washing machines and solar panels, might continue to cap any meaningful USD up-move and further contribute towards limiting any deeper corrective slide for the major.

Hence, now we are waiting for a strong follow-through weakness before confirming that the pair might have topped out in the near-term.

Technical levels to watch

Immediate support is pegged near the 0.8065-60 region, below which the pair is likely to accelerate the corrective slide towards 0.8020 level en-route the key 0.80 psychological mark.

On the upside, momentum beyond 0.8115 immediate resistance might continue to confront some fresh supply near the 0.8125-35 region, above which the pair seems all set to extend its near-term bullish trajectory.

EURO Looks to Q4 2017 GDP

The ECB stayed away from a strong condemnation of the recent Euro appreciation, clearing the way for more gains as traders bet on a more robust Euro-Zone recovery.

Upcoming Q4’17 Euro-Zone GDP data and the preliminary January CPI report are the next obstacles for the Euro.

The Euro’s gains versus the US Dollar extended into a fourth consecutive week to start 2018, with the European Central Bank’s President Mario Draghi failing to slow down speculation over the end of the central bank’s easing program. EUR/USD gained +1.65%, trading at levels above 1.2500.

Growing US political concerns have been weighing on the US Dollar, even offsetting a steady rise in Fed March rate hike.

Over the next few days, there are two instances in which the Euro will be in charge of its own destiny. On Tuesday, the GDP report for the Q4 2017 Euro-Zone will show that the economy grew by +0.6% (QoQ) and +2.7% (YoY) a small improvement over the +2.6% (YoY) reading seen in the quarter prior. On Wednesday, the preliminary January Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index is set to show a rise in the core reading to +1.0% from +0.9% (YoY) but a decline in the headline from +1.4% to +1.3% (YoY).

With the data set to come this week, it doesn’t appear that the turn in the data could derail the Euro’s current bullish trend.

US Economic Indicators

Last week, Wall Street digested key U.S. economic data. On Friday, the Commerce Department showed that the U.S. economy grew by 2.6 percent during the fourth quarter of 2017. Economists polled by Reuters expected a gain of 3 percent.

Meanwhile, U.S. durable goods orders rose 2.9 percent in December, according to the Commerce Department. Economists expected an increase of 0.8 percent.

The greenback is down 1.5 percent for the week, following comments made by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Wednesday, Mnuchin said he welcomed a weaker U.S. dollar, adding that it would benefit the country's trade. His remarks sent the currency to its lowest levels in three years.

Today US economic releases include Core PCE Price Index and personal income/spending data. This week the focus is on the FOMC meeting, which is going to be the 1^st meeting of the new Fed chairman Jerome Powell where interest rates are expected to remain unchanged. On Friday, the market will look for an increase in the number of jobs added during the first month of the year. Expectations are for +180K, up from +148K in December. It is also expected that wages have been increased by 0.3% in January and could have a great impact reaching the inflation target.