German GDP growth expected to increase

Daily Analysis - 13/05/2016

Preliminary estimates for German GDP is expected to show a 0.60% increase in the first quarter


Preliminary GDP data from Germany for the first quarter of 2016 is expected to see the German economy extend gains, rising 0.60% following a 0.30% increase in the fourth quarter. Recent trade balance data for the first few quarters adds weight to the bullish forecasts. On a year over year basis, German GDP is expected to rise 1.20% on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, slower than the previous quarter's 2.50% increase.

French CPI increases 0.10% in April m/m

Consumer price index in France increased 0.10% on a month over month basis, data from French statistics office, Insee reported on Thursday. CPI gained 0.10% in April after a 0.70% increase in March. On a seasonally adjusted basis, consumer price index in France increased 0.10% in April, rising at the same pace as the prior month. On a year over year basis, French inflation was down 0.20% extending March's 0.20% decline. The month over month increase in inflation came with higher prices in the services sector and to a certain extent a moderate increase in petroleum product prices. Driving inflation higher was mobile phone services and passenger transport by air, which increased 1.70% and 3.70% respectively, while insurance prices gained 1.10%. Manufacturing product prices fell in the month due to sales promotion, while food prices remained stable.


Norges bank holds rate steady. GDP rises

The Norges Bank, at the monetary policy meeting yesterday left the interest rate at 0.50% as expected, leaving interest rate unchanged for the second month in a row after a 25bps rate cut in March this year. The bank noted that economic developments since March did not deviate substantially from the March projections, but noted that consumer price inflation was still elevated. The bank said that the stronger krone may contribute to a more rapid decrease in inflation than previously projected. In a separate report from Statistics Norway, first quarter GDP data showed that the economy bounced back, rising 1.0% in the first three months of the year, compared to the previous quarter, which saw a contraction of 1.30%. The GDP estimates beat analyst forecasts of a 0.10% increase.


Bank of England votes to keep rates unchanged

The Bank of England met for its monthly monetary policy meeting yesterday. The MPC members voted unanimously to keep interest rate at 0.50%. The Bank of England also released the inflation forecast reports. While inflation expectations remained unchanged, the BoE reiterated that the UK could see inflation rising to 2.0% in mid-2018, indirectly ruling out any rate hikes in the near future. The central bank however maintained that short term inflation outlook remains to the upside. The Bank of England also lowered GDP forecasts for 2016, with the central bank expecting UK's GDP to rise 2.0% this year, down from 2.20% previous estimates.


US retail sales expected to rebound in April

US retail sales data for April is expected to see a modest rebound as consumer spending has managed to underpin the US economic and job growth so far. However a slower pace of jobs and retail sales saw the US first quarter GDP slowing to 0.60%. A rebound in car sales in April is expected to boost overall sales numbers, according to some analysts. US retail sales is expected to rise a solid 0.80% in April reversing the 0.30% declines in March, while excluding auto, retail sales is expected to rise 0.50% extending the 0.20% increase from March.


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  • German GDP q/q (Q1)
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  • 0.30%
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