Germany Rules Out Negotiations with UK

Daily Analysis - 29/06/2016

Angela Merkel Uncooperative Until Article 50 Invoked


German Chancellor Angela Merkel, speaking to the Bundestag yesterday said that there cannot be any negotiations or pre-negotiations with the UK until the country formally invokes article 50 to pave way for a legal exit from the Union. Merkel indicated she will not wait for a leadership change, however. Former Prime Minister David Cameron is in Brussels for the EU summit, meeting leaders for the first time since the referendum.

German Import Prices Fall in May

Import prices decreased at a slower than expected pace in May, data from German statistics agency Destatis showed on Tuesday. Import prices fell -5.50% on a year over year basis during the reported month and showed moderation following April's declines of -6.60%, which was the sharpest decline in import prices since October 2009. The declines came as energy prices fell -26.50% while excluding energy, import prices fell -2.70%. On a monthly basis, German import prices increased 0.90%, following a 0.10% decrease between March and April.


French Consumer Confidence Slides in June

The consumer confidence index in France fell to 97 in June, compared to 98 in May, data from French statistical office INSEE showed on Tuesday. The decline in consumer confidence was expected. Household opinion on personal finances and financial situation deteriorated in the 12-month outlook with the corresponding index worsening to -10 from -9 a month ago. The standard of living index was also weaker regarding the coming year, with the index falling by 6 points to -33 from a month ago. The decline in consumer confidence comes despite a modestly upbeat employment outlook in France.


US Q1 GDP Rises More Than Expected

Economic activity in the US during the first three months of the year grew at a pace of 1.10%, data from the US Commerce Department showed on Tuesday. The final revised GDP numbers were higher than previously projected GDP growth rate of 0.80%. The newly revised GDP growth of 1.10% in the first quarter comes following the fourth quarter GDP growth of 1.40%. However, despite the upbeat revision, the sub data showed continued weakness. While corporate profits, after tax and without inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments rose 3.30% in the period, household spending remained weak.


Draghi Speech Continues

ECB President Mario Draghi is expected to speak again today in Portugal. Yesterday, Draghi told EU leaders that the effect on the EU from the UK's vote to leave the Union would shave off 0.30 - 0.50 percentage points off GDP. Previously, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney were also scheduled to speak at the event, but both the governors cancelled their engagements.


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