Readings of consumer price indices across the globe indicate that deflation is on the doorstep and likely to permeate through the world economy after infiltrating global trade. The weakness in shipping indices is just one measure revealing the deterioration in the real economy. With inflation data from the UK and US pointing to no inflation, the problems are evident and pervasive. Yesterday’s UK CPI printed at 0.00% annualized with the US figure a mirror equivalent. Although ECB President Mario Draghi has staked his optimistic forecasts for the success of quantitative easing in Europe on the resurgence in inflation, data is more supportive of persistent deflationary pressures over the medium-term. This is likely to see further GDP revisions lower from both the US and UK as Governments and Central Banks struggle to implement pro-growth policies amid record low interest rates.
The Disappearing Inflation Trick
Daily Analysis - 25/03/2015