The demonstrators in Iran are not only demonstrating great nerve and boldness in their expressions of discontent with their corrupt, backward and negligent government of theocrats and autocrats, the world too is showing nerve in what is developing into some kind of backbone (nerve) too. Hardly awe inspiring but nerve nonetheless. Oil prices are not surging away. The world’s leadership is not acting silently pretending what is going on in Persia is irrelevant, as they do so often in life (See the Royhinga slaughter in Southeast Asia for an awful example.) So far the price per barrel of oil is holding around $60. This despite a drawdown of double the expected reduction yesterday in the Crude Oil Inventory Report produced by the International Energy Agency in the US. Supply disruptions in the Iranian pipeline so far seem unlikely according to the sources we connect with. This is because the demonstrations are not near oil facilities. But also because the regime is not going to let the disturbances effect what is already a cash-strapped fiscal condition. One the reasons for so much discontent is the fact that the Mullahs have squandered so much of the country’s wealth, particularly that cash freed up with the lifting of sanctions related to the silly nuclear program, ridiculous adventures in Syria, Yemen, Lebanon and beyond. Reducing oil imports is not in the cards. If, that is, the world does not impose such restrictions on the Iranians. This would come as a result of more severe reactions to and treatment of the demonstrators by the venal leadership of the state. Do your homework this weekend. Read the Eurasia Group’s work. Read. This is an important development we should all be well informed about.
Iran, Trump and uncertainty
Daily Analysis - 05/01/2018