The rising trend in crude oil is stronger and continuing. We anticipate that the trend is likely to reverse and we look for that reversal at the price of 63.00. Below this point we anticipate continued falls to the 61.50 level and so on down to the mid to low 50’s. This is due to the still staggering amount of excess crude (about 1.225 M bbl. The long term average is around 1.0m bbl.) held above ground in the US. This despite last week’s 526.99% larger than expected decline in inventory stocks reported by the International Energy Agency in their weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report that was out Wednesday. We are of the opinion that these prices are too high given the demand levels and supply situation worldwide. Also as the high price persists, the likelihood that the OPEC cartel will face more cheating by violation of production quotas increases proportionately. Should this scenario fail to materialize, or take longer than expected to set up, we believe that prices in the range of 62.00 to 63.00 will indicate continuation of this overbought, i.e. too high, price level. In the short term, today and the early part of this week, oil UP.
Mexican Peso and the Price of Oil both Strong
Daily Analysis - 15/01/2018