New Zealand Expects to Follow Australia and Cut Interest Rates

Daily Analysis - 10/08/2016

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Will Meet Thursday Morning to Vote on Rate Cut


The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will meet Thursday to vote on an anticipated interest rate cut. Last month, Australia cuts its rates to the lowest level in history. The Kiwi dollar is currently at a higher level than its historic rates against a basket of currencies, making a rate cut the natural move for the RBNZ. Analysts all across the world agree that a rate hike will occur during this meeting, but the amount of the decrease still remains to be seen.

RBA Governor Worried About Deflation for Australia’s Future

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens concurs with experts that the RBA faces a ‘difficult job’ to balance its economy to make sure it doesn’t undershoot its inflation target. Stevens, who is in the lame duck period of his tenure and set to retire in September, stated that the benchmark range for Australian inflation for the last decade is now outdated. For about the last ten years, the inflation target was at 2.00-3.00% while maintaining an unemployment range between 5.00-6.00%. As deflation looms over the Australian economy, the RBA forecasted inflation will remain below its target until the end of 2018. Stevens stated right after the interest rate decision that ‘inflation returning to target over time, would be improved by easing monetary policy’ meaning that another rate cut in the future is not out of the realm of possibility.


Gold Continues to Rise After Poor US Data

Gold prices spiked during the beginning of the European session on Wednesday as a combination of mixed US data was released a day earlier. Yesterday, the yellow metal rose by 0.40% after the Labor Department announced that worker productivity fell by -0.50%. This drop of productivity in June marks the ninth straight month of contraction, marking the longest period of decline since the late seventies.


Mild Summer Weather in the US Sends Natural Gas Tumbling

Natural gas prices dropped by more than -5.00% as mild temperatures have been forcast across the US for the next two weeks. In 2015, about 27.00% of US electricity was generated with natural gas and a majority of US natural gas supply is domestically produced. Summer temperatures usually sees a notable increase in demand for natural gas as air conditioning use goes up, requiring more power from utilities. The Energy Information Administration will release its natural gas storage report tomorrow after they reported a contraction of-6 billion cubic feet last week.


UK Manufacturing Continues to Fall

UK manufacturing contracted further in June in the aftermath of Britain’s decision to vote to ‘leave’ the European Union. According to the Office for National Statistics, UK Manufacturing fell -0.30% in June while it was forecasted to stay flat at 0.00%. May’s data was revised lower to -0.60% from the original figure of -0.50%, adding to the evidence of a prolonged slowdown in UK fundamentals.


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