Oil, from a more than 4 year’s high to a bearish market

Daily Analysis - 14/11/2018

The reasons why oil prices went so rapidly

Oil is experiencing a remarkable retracement while crude futures clear out a full year's profits. This is after oil reaches its highest levels since almost four just one and a half month. The drop indicates a significant shift in the expectation for the oil prices. About 30 days ago, investors were worried that a shortage of oil could drive crude futures to $100 a barrel. Now, on the other hand, supply is suspected to swamp demand at the start of the next year. Resulting oil rates have fallen more than $19 a barrel since the start of last month when Brent crude climbed to almost $88 a barrel and U.S. crude exchanged quite modestly at $77. Both benchmarks are now exchanging heavily in a bear market region, having dropped more than 19% from their last highs.

UK- EU Draft agreement in focus

Today at 14:00 GMT senior ministers will meet due to requests to discard the agreement from both senior Brexiteers and Remain followers.

Teresa May will further extend the one-to-one preparations with ministers on the proposals.

According to BBC political editor, Laura Kuenssberg Some cabinet members have "deep reservations,"

This "draft agreement" is treated with much attention at the time in the discussions between Brussels and the UK. Today GBP got a temporary increase versus the greenback in the morning and rose about 0.10%. Also, the popular currency saw gains more than 0.15% versus the EUR after the announcement that the draft had probably reached an agreement.

Dow falls to recover its losses, still bearish

Yesterday US stocks dropped in a wild trading session. They tried but they fail to recover their status after experiencing steep declines in the previous session. The Nasdaq Composite finished simply in a range at 7,200.86. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 100.70 points to about 25,286.50, as the S&P 500 fell 0.2% to 2,722.17, marking its fourth decline in a row. The S&P 500 and the Dow went up more than 90 points and 1% each. After the White House, economic advisor Larry Kudlow verified news of resumed talks among the U.S. and China on trade the main indexes went to their session highs.

Gold going up due to weak dollar

Spot gold climbed about 0.2% to $1,203.85 per ounce. Prices had moved down to their lowest area since last month at $1,195.89 in the last session.

U.S. gold futures were higher about 0.2% at $1,203.1 per ounce.

On Wednesday Gold prices went up while the popular greenback reversed from more than a year high reached before the week, weakening due to a surge in GBP and the EUR in a draft Brexit agreement. John Sharma, an economist with National Australia Bank said "There has been some stalling in the U.S. dollar, the rise has eased helping gold to pick up."

Upcoming Events

Time
Currency
Event
Forecast
Previous

9:30 GMT
GBP
CPI (YoY) (Oct)
2.50%
2.40%

13:30 GMT
USD
Core CPI (MoM) (Oct)
0.2%
0.1%

23:30 GMT
USD
Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Ready to trade
Open Account
Share:
Next: Dow Jones dives more than 590 points