Oil Prices Fall After Back-To-Back Builds In Inventory

Daily Analysis - 01/09/2016

Crude Oil Inventory Shows Build-Up, Eclipses Forecasts


Crude oil prices closed lower yesterday, down over 3.00% for the day at $44.70 a barrel. The Energy Information Administration's weekly US crude oil inventory report showed a larger than forecast build up in inventory which sent crude oil prices tumbling. Stock added 2.3 million barrels.

German Retail Sales Rises to 15-Month High

Retail sales in Germany surged 1.70% in August reaching a 13-month high and beating estimates of 0.40%, data from Destatis showed on Wednesday. However, on an annualized basis, retail sales were weaker, falling -1.50%. June's retail sales were revised to show a -0.60% decline from -0.10% declines while on an annual basis, retail sales for June were revised from 2.70% to 2.30% due to food, tobacco and beverage sales.


French Consumer Price Index Rises 0.30%

Preliminary estimates for the French CPI for August released on Wednesday showed that inflation rose 0.30% during the month. On an annual basis French inflation increased 0.20% in August, rising at the same pace as in July, slower than estimates. The French flash CPI estimates follow that from Germany a day ago which showed that inflation is slowing in Europe's largest economy. With the ECB's monetary policy coming up next week, the weak set of inflation data is likely to evoke a response from the central bank.


US Private Payrolls Rise 177k

Private US employers continued to keep hiring workers at a steady pace. Data from payrolls processor ADP and Moody's Analytics showed on Wednesday that payrolls in the private sector increased 177k in August. It was higher than forecasts of 175k. The data for July was revised higher from 179k to 194k as well. ADP said that the services sector continued to outperform. This raises expectations for Friday's official nonfarm payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which currently call for the unemployment rate to fall to 4.80% while the number of jobs is anticipated to hit 186k.


Canada's GDP Contracts in Second Quarter

Canada's economic activity contracted in the second quarter, coming in below expectations and posting the worst quarterly numbers in more than seven years. GDP fell at an annualized rate of -1.60% in the second quarter. This follows the first quarter GDP which was revised slightly higher from 2.40% to 2.50%. Data for June however showed that the Canadian economy ended the second quarter fairly better as energy production resumed following the wildfires in Alberta.


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