Post FOMC Stunner

Yesterday’s FOMC Statement proved a major turning point for investors as the Federal Reserve provided more hints about the timeline for an interest rate hike. Although Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen did not completely reject raising rates at the next meeting, she dismissed the timing as improbable, leaving traders to anticipate a more hawkish Federal Reserve in either June or September. While the Fed plans to remain “data dependent” in its decision-making, the latest revisions lower in growth and inflation expectations should not be ignored. Since the last forecasts were published in December, growth expectations for 2015 have moderated to 2.30%-2.70%. The commentary sent the US dollar tumbling versus peers before experiencing a flash crash after the close of the American equity session. The crash generated the greatest volatility in currencies since the Swiss decision with EURUSD swelling over 400 pips.

Comments from Janet Yellen on equity valuations proved not enough to take the fire out of benchmark indices which rose across the board yesterday. She noted during the question and answer session that “overall measures of equity valuations are on the high side,” implying that the equity markets have gotten slightly ahead of themselves. Yellen surprisingly refused to comment on specific sectors like biotechnology and social media which have seen astronomical valuations expand even further despite warnings from several prominent investors. The losses in the dollar translated to cheaper equity benchmarks which led to a surge in bidding. Stocks shrugged off Yellen’s comments with the Dow Jones Industrial Average adding 1.27% followed by a 1.22% gain in the S&P 500. The Nasdaq Composite lagged behind peers, increasing a more modest 0.92%.