Crude price was surely the first stage of the consequences of the uprising in Iran. Well, no. That is not true. The brave citizens of Persia are holding first line of consequences in the display of discontent sweeping the nation of 80 million people. Let us not forget that this is a humanitarian affair. Yes, it has significant market repercussions and we will trade those repercussions to be sure. But don’t lose sight of the fact that driving these developments is a human versus human contest where guns are the implements of the struggle. This is a struggle for the future and character of Iran. As Henry Kissinger famously asked, Is Iran a nation or a cause?” It appears that the demonstrators want a nation. The discontent with the Ayatollahs has reached a point not seen since 2009 when the rigged Ahmadinejad election was the catalyst and before that in 1979 when the Ayatollah Khomeini overthrew the Shah. Despite Rouhani’s statements of tolerance for the rights of the demonstrator, he doesn’t call the shots. Khamenei does and he sees Iran as a revolutionary theocratic cause. It’s the revolutionary bit that gives the autocrats away. No revolution is permanent. When you look at Mexico, Cuba, Iran the only thing permanent in these endless revolutions it’s the grasp of power of the leaders. Not surprisingly corruption, mismanagement and frustration ensue with this type of leadership. The first area outside of domestic Iranian politics affected is crude price. Iran is the sixth largest producer on earth pumping just shy of 4 million barrels a day. Note, supply from Iran has not reduced by one barrel. None of the demonstrations are occurring in the oil centers of Iran. Still… the effect is taking hold and we need to trade this. Oil UP!
The storm clouds over Iran are getting darker
Daily Analysis - 04/01/2018