Stronger US Dollar Erodes Bullion Demand

Daily Analysis - 08/11/2017

Gold Retreats after Biggest One-Day Rally in 6-Weeks

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Gold shed -0.50% on Tuesday, pulling back from the prior session's rally as a stronger greenback reduced the appeal for safe-haven assets. On Monday, bullion soared as much as 1.00% to notch its biggest daily rise in six weeks following news of a series of high-profile arrests during a corruption crackdown in Saudi Arabia.

Bullion Traders Await Fresh Cues


The US dollar rose 0.30% against the Euro on Tuesday as investors bet that monetary policies in the United States and the monetary union would continue to diverge. A stronger greenback puts pressure on dollar-denominated commodities as they become more expensive for investors using other currencies. Underpinning the short-term bearish sentiment, holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed ETF, decreased -0.14% to 844.27 tonnes on Tuesday.

XAUUSD finished the previous session at $1275.20 per troy ounce before rebounding overnight. A look at the daily price chart of gold reveals the intermediate-term trend in the metal is down, with prices stuck within a horizontal range stretching from $1260-$1280. Selling pressure could accelerate on a dip below $1270 per ounce, which coincides with the last major pivot low on the 4-hour chart.

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xauusddaily11082017

China Trade Surplus with the US Narrows Ahead of Trump Visit


Hours ahead of US President Donald Trump’s first official visit, official Chinese data published by the country’s customs administration overnight showed that the ongoing trade surplus with the US contracted in October.  Trump is scheduled to arrive in Beijing later in the session with a large trade delegation that includes executives from Boeing and Goldman Sachs. US-bound Chinese shipments climbed 8.30% to $37.80 billion last month compared to the same period last year. Chinese purchases of US-made goods edged 4.30% higher to $11.10 billion.

Overall, China's October exports fell short of market expectations, increasing just 6.90% from a year ago, while imports topped forecasts, surging 17.20%. The result was a trade surplus of $38.17 billion for the month compared to the prior month’s result of $28.61 billion. In the meantime, USDCNH is marginally lower in early Wednesday trade, trending around 6.6375.

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US Student and Auto Loan Borrowing Swells


Led by a sharp rise in auto and student loans, US consumers increased their borrowing in September by the most since November 2016 according to Tuesday’s Federal Reserve data. Consumer borrowing figures are closely tracked for clues about the general trend in consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70.00% of US economic activity.

Outstanding consumer credit grew by $20.83 billion during the month of September, climbing by an annualized pace of 6.60% on a seasonally adjusted basis. Total outstanding credit rose to a revised $13.14 billion in August, growing at a 4.20% annual clip. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal were expecting a $19.00 billion increase in September. Non-revolving credit outstanding, which mainly includes vehicle and student loans, gained by $14.40 billion, nearly double the $7.60 billion rise recorded in August. The USDCHF pair is broadly unchanged near 0.9990 in early European trade.

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Prolonged Shortages Lift UK Home Prices


Data unveiled by mortgage lender Halifax on Tuesday showed that British house prices rose at their fastest pace since February in the three months through October. Home prices increased at an annualized pace of 4.50% during the period, accelerating from the 4.00% advance reported for the three months to September. The gain matched the consensus forecast of a survey of economists conducted by Reuters.

In a statement following the release, Halifax noted that the continued lack of properties for sale combined with historically low mortgage rates and strong jobs growth have stoked home values despite dipping consumer confidence. Looking ahead, Halifax said it did not expect the Bank of England’s recent interest rate hike to dampen housing demand. The GBPUSD pair has reversed from the highs of Wednesday to currently hover around the 1.3160-mark.

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