Trade War Looming. China Ammunition Stocks

Daily Analysis - 10/05/2018

China Ammunition Stocks

The US administration continues threatening the Chinese with tariffs. As the negotiations that started this month in Beijing move to Washington for their next round, the Chinese economy and Mr. Liu He, the senior economist negotiating for China stands ready to weather what could well be a protracted trade war.

EURILS

For the first time in the 7 year civil war that has caused death, displacement and ruin in Syria, firing between Revolutionary Guard forces of Iran and the Israelis occurred last night. We know not the implications of such altercations only that the Middle East is a tinderbox and it won’t take much to ignite, let alone detonate. Counterintuitively, the Israeli currency is showing strength despite the threat. We believe the central bank is likely propping up the currency.

Brent Crude Rises

The oil patch was the most obvious economic manifestation resulting from the US reneging on the JCPOA agreement. There will be many more to be sure but it will take some time before the dust settles and the US administration decides on what when and how the sanction President Trump mentioned will play out. In the meantime oil has not stopped rising since the announcement.

Orange (aka France Telecom)

Telephone and internet and media are in play in Europe today as Vodafone agreed to pay €18.4 bn for the German and Eastern European cable networks of Liberty Global. This is one of Euroland’s biggest telecommunications linkups in history. The British firm wants to join its wireless services with the land line and TV offerings of the acquired firm and take on the mighty Deutsche Telecom. All activity in this arena raises all ships.