UK: To deal or not to deal?

Daily Analysis - 09/01/2019

May's government defeated yesterday by parliament

On Tuesday Theresa May's administration experienced a loss at parliament. That happened after the MPs who object to leaving the EU with no deal got a vote to prevent UK leaving the EU.

The loss suggests that the administration requires specific parliamentary permission to leave the EU without a deal before it can use specific powers related to tax law. The defeat marks the PM's vulnerable status as leader of a minority administration. Opponent party leader Jeremy Corbyn said "This vote is an important step to prevent a no-deal Brexit. It shows that there is no majority in Parliament, the Cabinet or the country for crashing out of the EU without an agreement."

Dollar going lower

The dollar index, that gauges the greenback versus a box of six rivals, fell about 0.1% to 95.787.

Versus the popular Japanese yen, the greenback was essentially fixed at 108.70 yen per dollar. On Wednesday, the Popular US dollar softened versus its rivals on expectations that the China-U.S. trade conflict will ease. That increased the appetite for riskier currencies.

Improved risk appetite supported also the rise of the AUD after U.S. administration officials announced that trade talks between China and the United States will resume on Wednesday.

US crude went up more than 2%

On Tuesday Oil boosted by expectations that the oil will probably rises at a faster pace if U.S. and China officials settle the trade conflict between them.

Another factor that helped the oil prices to increase is the OPEC-led supply declines that could be extended. Bob Yawger, director of futures at Mizuho in New York said “The trade situation is definitely bullish; you have a good demand construction if we can wrap up this trade deal," International Brent crude futures increased $1.27 to $58.60 per barrel while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures ended yesterday trading day higher $1.25 at $49.77 per barrel.

Gold steady for now

U.S. gold futures were steady at $1,286.69 per ounce while Spot gold was slightly altered at $1,285.62.

On Wednesday Gold stood mainly near the same levels while a rise in risk appetite upon anticipations of a China -U.S. trade deal took out the confidence from expectations of a halt in U.S. FED rate increases. The US and China will resume trade discussions in Beijing for the third day.