The persistent weakness in consumption is continuing to drag on the US economic outlook as evidenced by the latest revision lower in the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s modeling of second quarter GDP expectations. Retail sales fell flat in April, with no visible expansion except for a modest rise in the core figure by 0.10%. Both the core and regular retails sales figures printed well below expectations, making the revision higher to March’s figures look more like a temporary aberration than a change in the overarching trend. The signs of an impending recession are growing especially with increased probability that first quarter GDP numbers will be revised to negative from the marginally positive print recorded during the preliminary figures. Stocks were relatively unfazed by the announcement with the real move occurring in the dollar which continues to weaken in-line with the softness in underlying economic fundamentals.
US Economy Approaching Recession
Daily Analysis - 14/05/2015