Weak first quarter economic growth which was revised upwards to reflect seasonal factors was in stark contrast to GDP numbers released yesterday showing second quarter estimates revised higher from 2.30% to 3.70%. The strong results were in large part due to rising exports, shrinking imports, personal consumption expenditures, and more importantly, swelling inventories. Business inventories were behind much of the gains but could be potentially signaling a recession around the corner as the wholesale inventories-to-sales ratio continues to rise towards levels last seen in recessionary periods. In another concerning signal, pending home sales only staged a modest rebound, rising 0.50% versus expectations of 1.00% gains after contracting -1.70% in the prior month. The GDP number saw dollar momentum accelerate, mainly manifesting in gold prices which managed to stay below the critical $1132 longer-term level after bouncing off of $1120 per troy ounce.
US GDP Surges past Estimates
Daily Analysis - 28/08/2015