US Part-Time Employment Soars

Although Friday’s jobs report fell short of expectations, markets seemed unfazed despite the labor market undergoing a dramatic evolution from full-time employment to part-time employment. Aside from the concerning revision lower in the previous month’s nonfarm payroll figures to 85,000 from 126,000 was the revelation that labor force participation hit the lowest levels since 1977 with over 93 million Americans not working. The pace of full-time jobs lost is also accelerating with the latest payrolls number managing to stay in positive territory after over 400,000 part-time jobs were added at the expense of 200,000 full-time jobs erased in April. The average age of the labor force also continues to rise as workers postpone retirement in light of the troublesome outlook. Stocks responded positively to the jobs data with the S&P 500 gaining 1.35% while the dollar continued to weaken.

Data last week showed that the after 22-straight weeks of declining drill rigs in the United States, the pace of decline seems to be decelerating with the smallest decline since December, totaling 11 rigs. Bullish bets on crude oil continue to rise, signaling that the turning point for the latest rebound in prices might be in store considering that momentum chasing in commodities has become hugely popular, with prices overshooting in each direction relative to fundamentals in the market. After last week’s tremendous 3.900 million drawdown in inventories, the stage might be set for a change in trend as the overreaction in prices corrects downwards. Nevertheless, global oil inventories remain at 80-year highs and higher prices might make it attractive for certain producers to revive operations at projects with higher breakeven costs, adding to potential oversupply woes.