Daily Analysis - 26/07/2018
A trade war has been averted after US President Trump reached an agreement on Wednesday with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker at a meeting in Washington DC. Trade relations will now enter a new phase as Trump refrained from imposing more tariffs on European cars. Meanwhile the EU will be expanding its imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas and soybeans. US and European equity markets jumped higher on the news.
The European Central Bank holds a monetary policy meeting today, so the euro will be the main market focus. The central bank is not expected to make changes to interest rates but ECB President Mario Draghi’s press conference will be closely watched for insights into the bank’s plans in the near future. The EURUSD is higher and trading in the $1.17 handle after surging on the news of an agreement between Trump and Juncker yesterday.
WTI prices rose to come close to the key $70 a barrel level after the EIA crude oil inventory report on Wednesday showed a bigger drawdown in stockpiles than expected. Other news also impacted oil prices. There was a report that Saudi Arabia is temporarily halting all oil shipments through Bab-el-Mandeb Strait due to attacks on two ships carrying oil.
US data that will be in focus today will be the durable goods orders. The figures for both the headline and core for June are expected to increase from the previous month. Initial jobless claims are also on the docket. However, Friday’ US GDP will be the big one to watch. USDJPY is trading below 111 yen and remains under pressure after the Trump-EU agreement led to lower US treasury yields. This is also due to the fact the yen is stronger on speculation. The Bank of Japan may tweak stimulus at its policy meeting next week.
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