13.26% is a relatively large percentage move for a currency pair especially the pair of the two largest trading blocks in the world the US and the EU respectively. (In total size the order of the four largest blocks is: US $19.3 trillion, EU $18t, China $11.2t and Japan 8.9t.) What we see is that the US Dollar has weakened against all the Yen and the Euro on average by 11.2%. Beware speculation for “reasons” for why things happen in any capital market. There are as many “reasons” as there are traders and so “journalists” who don’t journalize fact anymore but merely aggregate the work of other “journalists” and regurgitate it (in other words they don’t dig information from data) will say, pseudo-knowingly, that the cause for a given effect is… Beware. What an intelligent person can say is that there are likely causes or possible and partial explanations for effects, but rarely singular reasons for complex events. Things that happen in a capital market are complex because there are so many participants with so many different ideas driving what they think and do. Therefore what we do know with absolute certainty is what the market did and when. The why may not be entirely clear. But, it is not necessary in order to profit. You see the trend, have a general idea of why it might be persisting for the time period under consideration and take a position on the continuation of the trend or its reversal. Not to oversimplify, but no need to complicate unnecessarily. The strengthening of the EUR against the USD is clear and present.
Year End Roundup
Daily Analysis - 25/12/2017