The Deutscher Aktien Index (aka the DAX, German Stock Index) fell below the 13000 price level for the first time in the three months since it had first breached the level three months ago. Remember, like almost all of the worlds’ major stock market indices these days, the DAX is at an all-time high. We have discussed the reasons for this but it is always important to review the fundamentals. Ask any exceptional professional. (Remember the 10,000 hours of rehearsal hypothesis.) The stock markets are as high as they are for two essential reasons. First, corporate earnings are very high. With the fruits of globalization in full bloom, (Yes there too are victims of globalization. They elected Trump and decided to take Britain out of the Eurozone.) Namely extremely cheap marine freight costs and ruthlessly competitive labor costs: More stuff is being supplied and consumed at lower costs than at any time in the history of recorded economic activity. Second, as interest rates worldwide are at extremely low levels, remember that the long term average for interest rates, even taking into consideration that for the last 10 years they have been at or next to zero, is still 5.5 percent. We are quite some way from that level today, though climbing back VERY slowly and cautiously. And so, with interest rates returning practically no real profit, and almost as little nominal profit, where are you going to invest any spare change you have acquired? Most probably the stock markets. Hence the rises. These circumstances will change as all circumstances in economics always do. But for now that the deal.
Year’s end and volumes are low.
Daily Analysis - 29/12/2017