UK Referendum Voting Begins

Market Trends - 23/06/2016

UK poll offices officially opened their gates to voting this morning at 06:00 GMT and are expected to host voters for the next 15 hours. The markets spiked a few minutes ahead of the opening of the polls as GBPUSD started to slide off new 2016 highs of 1.4819. Counting is expected to begin after the polls close with the first results to be released around 23:30 GMT which is likely to move the markets and create illiquid conditions.

The last opinion poll, an online survey conducted by Populus showed the Remain camp leading with 55% while the Leave camp was trailing at 45%. The survey also comprised of the largest sample size of 4700 and was held between June 21st and 22nd. British bookmakers are pricing in only a 25% probability of a vote to exit the EU. A vote to leave the EU is expected to send widespread ripples across the markets with the euro and the sterling coming under exceptional risk, but market sentiment so far shows otherwise as Brexit fears continue to abate.

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