Aside from the all-important US employment report delivered on Friday, momentum in global financial markets was primarily driven revisions to GDP and inflation forecasts from developed markets including the United Kingdom and Euro Area. Advanced economies are still reeling from the impact of lower energy prices and weakened growth due to poor external conditions. The European Commission reduced its own projections for inflation and economic activity amid these risks, with inflation expected at only half the levels forecast in November, dropping to 0.50% expected for 2016. The Bank of England echoed these revisions, with inflation not expected to hit the 2.00% targeted until 2018 while GDP growth expectations for 2016 were reduced to 2.20% from 2.50% prior. Manufacturing and services were a focal point in Asia, with Chinese manufacturing experiencing an ongoing contraction while services remained a strong spot in the economy, continuing to expand. Finally, across the Pacific, a strong reading from ADP earlier in the week contrasted sharply with Friday’s payroll reading showing that job creation in US slowed to 151,000, missing estimates by a wide margin despite the unemployment rate falling to 4.90%.
Central Banks Reduce Expectations
Weekly Report - 07/02/2016