More importantly and this is really Oscar Wilde’s point, not knowing the value of something but only its price blinds us to the worth or benefits that accrue to owning the asset in question. Thus it is with the greenback. When it was cheap many investors bought it to buy other currencies that paid higher interest rates. This technique called the “Carry Trade” is quite simple and widely employed. You but a relatively weak currency as the US Dollar was for the 1st quarter of the year and buy another currency that pays a higher interest rate that the US Dollar. Simple. Straight forward. However as the interest rates in the US are rising this trade is no longer profitable and must be unwound (Meaning: Reversed or closed). Particularly emerging markets where the interest rates were relative to the US higher, those emergers’ currencies are now under threat as dollars are withdrawn and the values of those currencies weaken relative to the greenback. Argentina raised its interest rate twice last week to combat just this circumstance. Formerly a burdensome rate of 27.5% the current price for the Peso is a cool 40%. Things are changing and the US dollar is a pinion in the global tectonics.
Iran Unchained? The Greenback Causing Emerging Market Grief
Weekly Report - 07/05/2018