A quick back of the envelope calculation shows that just about half of all US GDP in generated in that last month of the year. Astonishing, but true. One could say that this is just one industry out of many in a diversified and enormous economy. While this is undoubtedly true, it misses an important characteristic of the effect that Christmas sales have on the psyche of the US investor; it elevates or depresses the stock markets and investment in general far beyond the realm of retail. The outcome of this one report has had an historical tendency to set the tone for the coming year because investors’ moods are so strongly influenced by the report. This suggests to us here that weakness in the US economy is likely to follow on to the weakness that we see in China and Europe.
Santa Leaves Big Lump of Coal for US Retailers
Weekly Report - 18/02/2019